The Only Oscar Preview That Matters: Especially Useless Edition

It’s finally here, folks! The glitz! The glamor! The frustration! The Ben Affleck slouching and looking at his feet when the “Best Director” category comes up! It is, of course, Oscar week, and with that means it is time for the third annual Only Oscar Preview That Matters. After a first year in which I naively believed that a victory for The Social Network was still a possibility—nay, a probability—the OOPTM rebounded big time last year, as I correctly predicted 10 out of the 13 categories I assessed. Also, two of the three misses I put the actual winner under “Could win,” and only once did I completely whiff. Of course, it helps that last year’s ceremony was one of the most depressingly predictable in recent memory, but hey! At least I look kind of smart!

This year, however, I should tell you up front: I have absolutely no confidence in any of what you’re about to read. If you thought my choices for 2010 were bad, I think there’s a very good chance I’m just going to look even worse this year. But hey, one out of three ain’t bad! Oh wait, it is bad? Well, uh, not for baseball players. So there! That said, this unpredictability has made this year’s ceremony one of the more fascinating in recent memory. Some categories are locks, as always, but in a lot of the major categories there’s still a lot of uncertainty. That means there might actually be some level of excitement on Sunday! And you thought you’d never see the sight.

As was the case last year, I’ve decided to only examine/predict categories I can pretend to know anything about. You can find a complete list of nominees here. Now, onward and upward.

Best Picture

It’s been a topsy-turvy road for the Best Picture race, with Argo jumping out to an early lead, Silver Linings Playbook sprinting ahead in November, Zero Dark Thirty grabbing all the momentum in early in December, and then everything circling back to Lincoln when both Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck were denied Best Director nominations. However, something weird has happened since then: Argo has been cleaning up at all the guild awards, which are usually the best Academy Awards predictors out there since there’s a huge overlap in voting membership. Going into awards weekend, Argo seems to have all the momentum despite the fact it probably won’t be winning too many other awards. As such, I’ve decided to just go with it and not overthink things too much. However, don’t be surprised if the Weinstein monster is still lurking around the corner, waiting to pounce. Many people have written Silver Linings Playbook off completely, but I’m not so ready to ignore it. We’ve been fooled before. We may yet be fooled again.

I’ve decided to choose two films for “Could win,” because I think the other solid second-choice candidate is Lincoln. This would be mostly because of Spielberg’s Best Director win and the Academy’s weird desire to give the award to both, but I think it and SLP have a very real shot and bursting Argo’s bubble. Of all the nominees, however, Zero Dark Thirty still strikes me as the film most deserving of the title “Best Picture of 2012.” It has almost no chance of actually winning—congrats, torture people!—but I’m still pulling for it. I should also note I’ve finally seen Michael Haneke’s Amour, which I’m now secretly rooting for just because it would completely screw with everybody. Is it the best movie on this list? No. But nothing pleases me more than the idea of the Academy giving its top award to a French language film directed by the Austrian who gave us Funny Games. And you thought the Twitter reactions to Arcade Fire’s Grammy win were hilarious.

Will win: Argo

Could win: Silver Linings Playbook or Lincoln

Should win: Zero Dark Thirty

(BONUS) Movie I secretly want to win just to screw with everyone: Amour

Best Director

This was Steven Spielberg’s award to lose ever since the nominations were announced, and the closer we get to show time the harder it is to see anyone not named David O. Russell taking him down. It’s going to be very interesting when the Best Director award is announced—which unless I’m mistaken has been unusually early the past couple years—because that will, as usual, provide a big hint as to where the big’un is going at the end of the show. If Spielberg wins, I’d say Best Picture will likely come down to Lincoln or Argo. If Russell wins, then Silver Linings Playbook immediately becomes the frontrunner. However, for the same reasons mentioned above, I am pulling hard for Michael Haneke. Holy crap, will that be glorious. Also, have you been following the fake Haneke Twitter account? If not, you’re wrong. It’s awesome. And if Haneke winds up winning this weekend, it’s going to become the greatest follow in all of history.

Will win: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Could win: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Should win: Michael Haneke, Amour (#TeamHaneke)

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis has been (justifiably) cleaning up all awards season for his portrayal in Lincoln, and there is precisely no evidence to suggest that will change on Sunday. If anyone pulls that off, it will be Bradley Cooper, and if so it will be just one part of a massive Silver Linings Playbook takeover. That’s the weird thing about potential Silver Linings victories: either they come in bunches, or they won’t come at all. Still, a loss for Daniel Day-Lewis would be a huge, huge surprise. He would deserve it, certainly—have you seen Lincoln?—but if I were in charge I would give it to Joaquin Phoenix in The Master, as that’s probably my favorite performance of the year. No other actor left more of an impact on me this year, and not even Day-Lewis’ marvelous work could come close.

Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Could win: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Should win: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Best Actress

Boy, Naomi Watts is probably the quietest Oscar nominee this year, huh? I mean, I forgot she was even nominated until I read her name again putting this post together. Oh well, at least she still gets to have free lunches with famous people. As for the winner of this award, a lot of people seem to be favoring Emmanuelle Riva for her tremendous work in Amour. If she wins, it would be most deserving. But in a year where Silver Linings Playbook will often be coming in second place, I think this is the one category in which it will come up with a victory. Jennifer Lawrence may still have a long career ahead of her, but I think the Academy is going to give her the statue anyway. A Riva win will be a welcome development, but I’m not as optimistic as everyone else.

Will win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Could win: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Should win: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Best Supporting Actor

Not a lot of new blood in this category this year, but it’s also one of the most unpredictable. If Christoph Waltz didn’t win for the last Tarantino movie he was in, I’d imagine his work in Django Unchained would all but guarantee a win. However, since King Schultz isn’t too far removed from his Oscar-winning role of Hans Landa, I think the Academy way be hesitant to weigh in. My guess is they will go the way of Tommy Lee Jones, who was one of the big reasons Lincoln turned out to be so much better than people expected. If not, they’ll probably give it to one of the other old guys, like Robert De Niro. (Several oddsmakers actually have ol’ Travis Bickle as the favorite.) Either way, it won’t be going to no rookie. My personal pick is Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Master, who deserves all the awards for the processing scene alone.

Will win: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Could win: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Best Supporting Actress

This is not the strongest year for the Best Supporting Actress category, so much so that Anne Hathaway probably won the award by the second time she sang the word “dream” in Les Misérables. I think she’s probably the most deserving, since her work in that film is so good that it almost makes the rest of the movie look weak by comparison. (Of course, there’s also Tom Hooper to thank for that.) I’m all in for a Hathaway win here, who had one heck of a year between Les Mis and her scene-stealing work in The Dark Knight Rises. My only potential spoiler is Sally Field, even though I didn’t really care for her role in Lincoln. But let’s face it: this is Hathaway’s category.

Will win: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables

Could win: Sally Field, Lincoln

Should win: Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables

Best Original Screenplay

Conventional wisdom seems to suggest this category is down to Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty and Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained, and they are definitely two of the more provocative choices for this category. I’m leaning Tarantino, but I’m awful hesitant; he seems like a guy who will always get nominated thanks to a vocal pro-Tarantino contingent, but I think actual wins will be few and far between. People seemed to think he was the favorite for Inglourious Basterds a few years back, but he was beat out by… oh, wouldn’t you know? Mark Boal. In the endless steruggle that is Tarantino vs. Boal, I pick Tarantino to win this round, though I’m anything but positive. Also, if Boal wins again, I fully expect Tarantino to start collecting Boal-sized voodoo dolls in his office.

Will win: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Could win: Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty

Should win: Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty (barely)

Best Adapted Screenplay

This category could be another early indicator of where Best Picture will go. If it goes to Argo, as is predicted by me and most experts, then that film seems to be well on its way to the big prize. If it goes to Tony Kushner’s Lincoln script—which to me is the only other legitimate option—then that could be a real speed bump. We shall see. If I were choosing, I’d likely give it to Lincoln, as it does a slightly better job of really showing the audience what America must have been like toward the end of the Civil War. Argo is a very good script, but it’s just a bit more typical.

Will win: Chris Terrio, Argo

Could win: Tony Kushner, Lincoln

Should win: Tony Kushner, Lincoln

Best Animated Feature

This may be a case of me overthinking it, but I’m wagering that the Pixar behemoth will rebound with a win for Brave whether it really is the best animated film or not. (It isn’t.) If it doesn’t win, it will almost surely go to the wonderful Wreck-It Ralph, and the Academy will get no complaints from me. In fact, I may prefer that to Brave, but I think the Oscars’ old-fashioned sensibilities may push them more in that film’s direction. My personal choice, however, is the terrifically funny and smart ParaNorman, which unfortunately has lost a lot of its initial buzz in recent months. Why is that, world? You should really check it out.

Will win: Brave

Could win: Wreck-It Ralph

Should win: ParaNorman

Best Cinematography

When the nominations were announced, I was all aboard the Deakins train, and it looked like the rest of the world was too. Alas, his first win seems like it will have to wait a bit, as all the evidence indicates the award will go to Claudio Miranda for the beautiful Life of Pi. Is that wrong? Not necessarily. But I will have a soft spot for Deakins’ Skyfall work until the day I die. He is a huge, huge part of what makes that movie so awesome.

Will win: Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi

Could win: Roger Deakins, Skyfall

Should win: Roger Deakins, Skyfall

Best Original Score

First and foremost, the Original Score nominees stink this year. Like, bad. It’s especially weird to me that Alexandre Desplat’s score for Argo is nominated while his score for Zero Dark Thirty is about a million times more memorable and haunting. I haven’t been a huge Desplat fan in the past—his work has always struck me as “functional”—but his score for Zero Dark Thirty really bowled me over. Argo, not so much. I just rewatched that movie yesterday and I could not hum a single note. The stuff above is mostly guesswork based on very light research. John Williams gets the “could win” spot simply because he’s John freakin’ Williams, and Life of Pi gets the actual win because it really did help add to the wonder of the whole experience. And what are the Academy Awards about if not wonder?

Will win: Mychael Danna, Life of Pi

Could win: John Williams, Lincoln

Should win: Thomas Newman, Skyfall

Best Original Song

Breaking news: the Academy Award for “Best Original Skyfall” will go to Adele for “Skyfall,” the theme song for Skyfall. Weird Al, I expect your parody song “Skymall” within the next month of two.

Will win: “Skyfall,” Skyfall

Could win: Not happening, but “Suddenly,” Les Misérables

Should win: “Skyfall,” Skyfall

Best Film Editing

This is an award that typically goes to a procedural, or at least a film that features a lot of people talking to each other dramatically indoors. For that reason I think Zero Dark Thirty stands a real chance, but I expect Affleck’s CIA thriller will probably get the edge. It has all the momentum elsewhere, why not here?

Will win: William Goldenberg, Argo

Could win: Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg, Zero Dark Thirty

Should win: Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg, Zero Dark Thirty

Best Foreign Language Film

It’s hard to imagine they’d give this award to anything but Amour, considering it’s nominated for Best Picture and all. “Yeah, it’s one of the Best Pictures. But it’s not one of the Best Foreign Launguage Pictures.” Still, I wouldn’t put anything past the Academy. Also, while we’re here: #TeamHaneke

Will win: Amour

Could win: Amour

Should win: Amour

Best Visual Effects

Uh, have you seen Life of Pi? If not, go do that, and then tell me another movie deserves Best Visual Effects. I thought so.

Will win: Life of Pi

Could win: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Should win: Life of Pi

Best Production Design

Les Mis has a lot of nice sets, doesn’t it? Yeah, I agree. So why not let it win? I’m slightly more attached to Lincoln’s grittiness and refusal to go too over-the-top, but this might be one of those awards they hand to Les Mis just to reassure it that they know it exists. “Shhh. You won’t be getting anything too major, but here’s a Production Design award. We still love you!”

Will win: Les Misérables

Could win: Lincoln

Should win: Lincoln

Parting Thoughts:

Let me put it this way: if my optimism proves futile and the Weinsteins are able to pull off a Silver Linings Playbook assault, I’ll know never to make such a mistake again. However, all the evidence seems to indicate that their plan will come up short. Also, if the Best Picture favorite Argo does indeed win the big prize, it will be the first year since the great Brokeback Mountain/Crash debacle that we’ve had different winners for Best Director and Best Picture. While there’s enough to suggest Sunday won’t be so unpredictable after all, it’s become increasingly rare for us to go into the ceremony with so much uncertainty. We need more years like this.