I’d like to
begin by thanking you all for your patience over the course of the last couple
weeks. Preparing for this move has obviously taken up a lot of my
time, but now that I have a little bit of free time I’ve decided that I’d whip
out my usual list of Oscar predictions for the ceremony tomorrow. Of course,
you should know to never listen to my predictions in a normal year, but this
year could be really special in that all my travel/new job-related stuff has
forced me to pay almost zero attention
to all the usual pre-Oscar chatter. Normally by now I have a pretty good idea
of who is going to win the major categories. This year, I’m a bit lost in the
woods. So obviously you should keep reading! (Note to self: this may not have
been the best way to sell this post.)
Anyway, now it
is time to get down to the business at hand: beginning the fourth annual Only
Oscar Preview That Matters. Whatever you do, don’t listen to me.
Best Picture
Since I haven’t
written about awards season at all this year, let me begin by saying the
obvious: the lack of Inside Llewyn Davis
in this year’s nominations is an absolute travesty. In particular, how (perfectly
fine) movies like Philomena and Dallas Buyers Club can get into the Best
Picture pool and not the Coens’ film is mystifying to me. This year is a good enough one in that I can’t say I strongly dislike any of the Best Picture nominees,
and four of them were actually on my personal top ten list. It should be no
mystery to you all that my pick to win here would be Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street, so I shan’t go
further into it. However, the most likely winner seems to be Steve McQueen’s
immensely powerful 12 Years a Slave,
and if that happens I’ll be thrilled. It’d be the first time in years that the
Oscars gave the big award to a film that actually seeks to challenge audiences and take them into more disturbing places. As far as potential spoilers
are concerned, Alfonso Cuarón’s Gravity
and David O. Russell’s American Hustle
both seem like tempting choices, and each are very entertaining movies the likes of which the Academy has loved the past few years. Unlike
most ceremonies, the Best Picture category might actually be able to surprise
us this year. We shall see.
Will win: 12 Years a Slave
Could win: Gravity
or American Hustle
Should win: The
Wolf of Wall Street
Best Director
If 12 Years a Slave winds up taking home
Best Picture, that means we’ll likely have the rare Picture/Director split for the
second consecutive year. Gravity’s
Alfonso Cuarón has been in the driver’s seat for this award for some time now,
and I have a hard time seeing it taken away from him at the last second.
However, if either Steve McQueen or David O. Russell wind up stealing Best
Director from Cuarón, that may place their films at the front of the Best
Picture line. A Gravity win means
everything is going according to plan. Anything else and things might get
weird. However, a McQueen win would be the most welcome development for me,
since what he does with 12 Years a Slave
is absolutely superb.
Will win: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Could win: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Should win: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Best Actress
This is one of the
more uneven categories for me, since most of these performances are of the big,
attention-getting kind as opposed to the more restrained work that tends to truly captivate me. For instance, I really did not care for Meryl Streep’s
work in August: Osage County, though
I’m not sure it’s all her fault. It also says something that of these
performances, my personal favorite is easily Sandra Bullock in Gravity, since she is just as crucial to
that movie’s success as the special effects. Most experts seem to paint this as
a two-horse race between Cate Blanchett and Amy Adams, with the edge going to
Blanchett’s superb work as woman on the edge in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine. There’s been some talk
that the allegations surrounding Allen might impact her chances, but I have a
hard time imagining that she would
get punished for that.
Will win: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Could win: Amy Adams, American Hustle
Should win: Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Best Actor
Rare is the
category where I’d be happy to see just about anyone win, but that is exactly
what we have with this year’s batch of Best Actor nominees. You have Matthew
McConaughey transforming himself for the otherwise mediocre Dallas Buyers Club, Bruce Dern as a man
accidentally taking a tour through his life’s disappointments in Nebraska, Chiwetel Ejiofor’s captivating and heartbreaking
performance at the center of 12 Years a
Slave, Christian Bale as a surprisingly sharp con man in American Hustle, and Leonardo DiCaprio portraying one of the great
cinematic parasites of our time in The
Wolf of Wall Street. I didn’t think DiCaprio had a prayer a few months ago,
considering just how polarizing the film was, but he seems to have a whole lot
of momentum going into the final 24 hours. I would be all for such a change, but at
this point it seems like a tall task to get in the way of the McConaughey
train. Considering the streak of brilliance that our old friend Wooderson is on
right now, a win for Dallas Buyers Club
seems like a logical place for things to go.
Will win: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Could win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Should win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Best Supporting Actress
Whoa, Sally
Hawkins was nominated for Blue Jasmine?
Shows how little I’ve been paying attention this year. Anyway, a lot of people
seem to be disagreeing on where this category should go, but there is little
doubt in my mind that Lupita Nyong’o is the most deserving of the bunch. The idea that anyone could compare her work with what Jennifer Lawrence
does in American Hustle and come away
with the thought that Lawrence was better baffles my mind. I think Lawrence is
absolutely fantastic in almost everything she does, and I often liked her in Hustle, but she’s ultimately hitting a
lot of the same notes we saw her hit in her last David O. Russell collaboration Silver
Linings Playbook. Lawrence will probably win once again, but I think that'd be a missed opportunity to recognize all that Nyong'o was able to accomplish.
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Could win: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Should win: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Best Supporting Actor
Did you ever
think you’d see an Oscar ceremony in which the front man of 30 Seconds to Mars
would be a near lock to win Best Supporting Actor? Life’s weird, ain’t it? It’s
not as though Leto is bad in Dallas
Buyers Club, but I am admittedly befuddled by the nonstop praise being
heaped upon him. (“How brave of a rich straight man to play a transgender AIDS
patient! Bless his heart.”) In my opinion, he does precisely what he needs to
with the role and not a whole lot more. I’d much rather see the trophy go to,
well, pretty much any of the other nominees, but Leto seems like such a lock
that no one is agreeing on a potential spoiler. I’d likely give the award to
either Barkhad Abdi or Michael Fassbender, with a slight edge to Abdi because
he was able to come out of absolutely nowhere and become one of the most
memorable movie “villains” of the year. I’ll also list him as my “could win,”
because I’m a dreamer.
Will win: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Could win: Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Should win: Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Best Original Screenplay
The screenplay
categories are usually where the Oscars give some love to the year’s weirder
fare, and there’s a reasonably good chance they'll follow that pattern this year and
give Spike Jonze the statue for his work on Her.
I don’t adore Jonze’s film quite as much as others do, but I think his script
is a fine example of what a “Best Original Screenplay” should be. That may
sound dumb, and it is, but it makes sense to me so leave me alone. However, I
don’t think American Hustle is going
to get out of this ceremony without a few major wins, and this might be where
that happens. In a just world Her
would come out on top, but this is a voting body that gave Best Picture to The Artist. Never give them too much
credit.
Will win: Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell, American Hustle
Could win: Spike Jonze, Her
Should win: Spike Jonze, Her
Best Adapted Screenplay
This could be
the category where we find out just how into 12 Years a Slave the Academy is. If John Ridley comes away with the
win here, as I expect him too, then things may be right on track for the night
that film is expecting. Yet this seems like the category where the surprisingly large Philomena cult could leave their mark,
and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if that happened. The screenplay by Jeff
Pope and star Steve Coogan is one of the biggest reasons that film works at
all, and this is a movie that seems to have a lot of supporters. As for my
“should win” pick, it was almost taken by Terence Winter and The Wolf of Wall Street, but what
Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, and Julie Delpy were able to do with Before Midnight is quite astounding.
It’s clearly a film that should be happy with its nomination alone, but the Before… trilogy is something that only
gets more impressive the more you think about it.
Will win: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Could win: Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena
Should win: Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, and Julie
Delpy, Before Midnight
Best Cinematography
Roger Deakins is
one of the best cinematographers working today, and he seems to be nominated
for this Oscar every year. Shockingly, he has yet to win. I have a hard time
seeing him finally break through this year, as gorgeous as his work on Prisoners is. This, really, is Emmanuel
Lubezki’s award to lose, since Gravity is
easily one of the greatest visual experiences of last year. Even so, there’s
something about giving this award to CGI-driven films that (perhaps stupidly) rubs me the wrong
way, and if given the choice I think Bruno Delbonnel is the most deserving of
the bunch. His work on Inside Llewyn
Davis is crucial to the film’s overall tone, and it’d be nice to see that
movie get some love from the Academy.
Any at all would be nice.
Will win: Emmanuel Lebezki, Gravity
Could win: Roger Deakins, Prisoners
Should win: Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis
Best Editing
The only thing
I’ll really say here is that if American
Hustle wins this freaking award, I’ll be rather close to furious. As
entertaining as the film is, there are times when the editing is jarring and
distracting for no reason. Also, that The
Wolf of Wall Street isn’t here is soooooo dumb. That thing is
three hours and it goes by in the blink of an eye, and it's some of the best work Thelma Schoonmaker has done in ages. The consensus seems to be
that Gravity will take it, which may
be surprising since there are so few actual cuts in the movie, and yet it feels
appropriate. The most likely dark horse is probably 12 Years a Slave, another film that is notable for going long
stretches of time without cutting. That would be my pick as well, because there
are several key sequences in which the editing (or lack thereof) is absolutely
crucial to the overall impact.
Will win: Gravity
Could win: 12
Years a Slave
Should win: 12
Years a Slave
Best Documentary
Since I named The Act of Killing as my top
film of 2013, I think you can take a guess as to what my choice here would be.
People seem to be split on who will win here, with some saying The Act of Killing will triumph and
others going with the captivating Egyptian Revolution film The Square. Meanwhile, 20
Feet From Stardom seems poised to leap in front of the pack should the heavier fare fail to charm voters. This
is an interesting category, but I’m going to ride the optimism train and say The Act of Killing will win the Oscar it
so deserves. If not, The Square is
plenty good too.
Will win: The Act of Killing
Could win: The
Square
Should win: The
Act of Killing
Best Original Score
This is a lousy,
lousy category this year, though I suppose it hasn’t been great for a while. The best choice here is probably Gravity,
since there’s at least something
memorable about the way music is used, even if it’s a tad overbearing. Other
than that, there’s almost nothing great to be found here.
Will win: Gravity
Could win: Saving
Mr. Banks (I have no
idea.)
Should win: Gravity
Best Original Song
Now this is a pretty good music category, made
even better by the recent removal of out-of-nowhere nominee “Alone Yet Not
Alone.” I think most everyone agrees that the Frozen anthem “Let it Go” is going to take it all, but at the very
least it should be fun to see all these songs performed live throughout the
ceremony. That’s what this category is really
about, after all.
Will win: “Let it Go,” Frozen
Could win: “Ordinary Love,” Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Should win: No preference. Couldn’t even make up a
strong opinion here.
Best Visual Effects
Uh………
Will win: Gravity
Could win: HAHAHAHAHAHAHA, that’s cute.
Should win: Gravity
------------------------
That should do
it. If I did not list a category above, it is because I didn’t feel confident
or knowledgeable enough to provide any selections. In particular, I stunk at seeing
the Foreign Language nominees this year, though The Great Beauty is pretty darn good. It’s a shame Blue is the Warmest Color wasn’t
nominated, but that’s all due to the silly rules that the Oscars have. Anyway,
there’s a good chance this will be my last post for a week or two until my move
is complete. If the inspiration comes I’ll try to get some things up, but don’t
be surprised if the blog goes quiet again for a little bit. Once I settle in
this should be able to slide right back into my regular schedule.
That’s all for
now! Try your best to enjoy the Oscars, everyone. Hopefully they’re not too interminable this year.
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