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| Yep, another King's Speech picture. |
Last week, my “Immortality Test” post was featured on the IMDb homepage, presumably because people found it “original” or something. Well, now I have topped that. This post will be a preview of the 83rd Academy Awards, in which I will make predictions, state my preferences, and talk about possible underdog wins. You thought my last post was one-of-a-kind, wait until this one is over! I just ask that you try to refrain from crying in joy while reading this. It’s embarrassing for me.
Best Picture
For a while, it seemed The Social Network was bound for Oscar glory. Then the guild awards came, a phase of awards season which The King’s Speech dominated. It also, unsurprisingly, took home the BAFTA. The last few awards have seen The Social Network gain ground once more, with the writers and editors giving it their top prizes. I’ve made it clear that of all the nominees, I believe The Social Network is the best film. Heck, I think it’s the best film of the year, period. I’m willing to keep hoping that it will come away with the top prize, so I will make that my final prediction. If I’m right, I’m psychic. If I’m wrong, no one cares. So whoop-de-freaking-do, The Social Network it is.
Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: The Social Network
Could Win: The King’s Speech
Best Director
Even if The King’s Speech wins Best Picture, I think there’s a good chance that David Fincher will come away with the Best Director award. The odds aren’t great for this, as the last time the Best Picture and Director Awards went to different films it was the 2005 Brokeback Mountain/Crash fiasco. What helps Fincher is the fact that his direction of The Social Network is indisputably better than Hooper’s work in The King’s Speech. I’m not saying that The King’s Speech is a poorly directed film, but that the heavy lifting is mostly done by the acting and the writing. It’s those qualities that make it such a great film. Meanwhile, Fincher might be the biggest reason his film is so transcendent. If Hooper ends up winning, however, the Best Picture race will be over before it’s announced. If Fincher wins, which I think/hope he will, it’s still quite interesting. (Notable: while The King's Speech won the BAFTA for Best Film, they gave directing honors to Fincher.)
Will Win: David Fincher, The Social Network
Should Win: David Fincher, The Social Network
Could Win: Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
Best Actor
Once again, the King’s Speech/Social Network feud lives on, only this time the race is much less dramatic. Like Secretariat pulling away at the Belmont Stakes, look for Colin Firth to take home the prize. Only other possibility: the Academy reads the ballots wrong and gives it to Eisenberg. My personal Best Actor award, however, goes to James Franco in 127 Hours. This is a performance that I fear may be forgotten sooner rather than later, but it’s some of the most impressive acting work I saw this year. Also, winning an award at an awards show you're hosting would be epic. Particularly if it's Franco, who could be President one day. I'd vote for him.
Will Win: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Should Win: James Franco, 127 Hours
Could Win: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Best Actress
It’s going to happen, folks. Padmé Amidala is about to win an Academy Award. It’s not undeserved, as Portman gave the best, most committed female performance of 2010. That’s not an easy decision for me to make, as I’m this close to choosing Jennifer Lawrence’s work in Winter’s Bone as my personal favorite of the year, but Portman, at the moment, takes the cake. The only dark horse here is Annette Bening for her work in The Kids Are All Right. I mean, let’s face it, every time Bening walks into a room people fight the urge to hand her a gold statue. After all, she’s been nominated four times and she’s never won. Keep an eye out for a “fifth time’s the charm” win.
Will Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Should Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Could Win: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Best Supporting Actor
This category, to me, is the most stacked top-to-bottom. So much so that one of my performances of the year (Andrew Garfield in The Social Network) wasn’t even nominated, but I can hardly complain because there isn’t a performance in here that doesn’t deserve it. It likely does not matter, as Christian Bale seems to be the clear favorite for his work as crack addict Dicky Eklund in The Fighter. Not only would I agree with this win, I think it’s the best performance of the year period. Look out for Geoffrey Rush, however. If the Academy is truly in love with The King’s Speech, he might be able to swoop in and declare victory.
Will Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Should Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Could Win: Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
Best Supporting Actress
Melissa Leo seemed to have this locked for a while, but due to reasons I’ll never comprehend people seem to be backing away from her. This has opened the door for 14-year-old Hailee Steinfeld to come in and steal it away from her. I’d love to see Steinfeld win, but ultimately I think cooler heads will prevail and Leo will come away with the win. While I think this win would get the movie right, it would go to my second-favorite female performance in The Fighter. My personal choice for Best Supporting Actress is Amy Adams as Charlene Fleming in the same movie.
Will Win: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Should Win: Amy Adams, The Fighter
Could Win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Best Adapted Screenplay
Aaron Sorkin, Aaron Sorkin and Aaron Sorkin. Oh, Aaron Sorkin. Aaron Sorkin? Aaron Sorkin! AARON SORKIN!!!
Will Win: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Should Win: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Could Win: The only real upset possibility is Toy Story 3. Also, Aaron Sorkin.
Best Original Screenplay
David Seidler’s screenplay for The King’s Speech is the clear favorite here, but this is the lone major category where Inception may have a fighting chance. Still, I have a sinking feeling that Nolan’s film is going to come up nearly empty on Oscar night. It’s a shame, but Seidler’s impressive work for The King’s Speech cannot be ignored. Now, full disclosure: I have yet to see Another Year, but I haven’t heard anything that hints at Mike Leigh coming in to spoil the party. And you know what? (What is it, Matt?) I don’t disagree with the Academy here. Give it to Seidler.
Will Win: David Seidler, The King’s Speech
Should Win: David Seidler, The King’s Speech
Could Win: Christopher Nolan, Inception
Best Animated Feature
See: Best Adapted Screenplay. Replace “Aaron Sorkin” with “Toy Story 3.”
Will Win: Toy Story 3
Should Win: Toy Story 3
Could Win: There is a strong How to Train Your Dragon contingent, but don’t hold your breath.
Best Cinematography
I would give Roger Deakins my own personal cinematography award every day if I could, but this year may finally be the year he’s victorious for his work in the Coens’ True Grit. The only real spoiler I see here is Wally Pfister for his work in Inception, but based on his name he should be off producing Viagra somewhere. (I kid.) Be careful, though. If Avatar won for cinematography last year (“Point the camera at that blue screen!”) then anything can happen.
Will Win: Roger Deakins, True Grit
Should Win: Roger Deakins, True Grit
Could Win: Wally Pfister, Inception
Best Original Score
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross composed my favorite score of the year in The Social Network, and it won the Golden Globe, but I’m not positive the Academy is going to be as in love with the music as everyone else is. This would help Hans Zimmer’s chances with his score for Inception, as well as Alexandre Desplat for The King’s Speech. I’m not quite sure which direction the Oscars will go, but when in doubt, go with the now-iconic “BWAAA!!!”
Will Win: Hans Zimmer, Inception
Should Win: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network
Could Win: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network
Could Win Part Deux: Alexandre Desplat, The King’s Speech
A Few Other Notes:
Best Foreign Language Film:
I’ve only seen Biutiful and Dogtooth of the five nominated films, and Dogtooth is clearly the (far) better film of the two. However, which film is going to actually win is anyone’s guess. I won’t really comment on it further, except that the one film I’ve heard mutterings about is the Candian film Incendies. Pfft, Canada. That’s barely foreign.
Best Documentary Feature:
Once again, I have only seen two nominees (Exit Through the Gift Shop and Inside Job). I realize I’m the only person on Earth who was underwhelmed by Inside Job, so I expect that film to come away with the win. The whole “Will Banksy show up and castrate himself onstage?” controversy will prove needless when his film doesn’t win, despite the fact it’s awesome.
Hosts James Franco and Anne Hathaway:
I’m becoming increasingly convinced that these two could make this ceremony the most charming Oscars ever. I really want them to do well, and given their track records in stuff like this I’m optimistic that these two could absolutely tear the house down on Sunday. Here’s hoping. Also, they should totally hook up. Their babies would be fabulous!
The Oscars are on Sunday night. I’m going to sit down and watch the whole thing, God help me. In all likelihood, there will be a reactions post up early next week, where we can all see how poorly I did.
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