To give you a faint idea of just how thoroughly uninterested I am in the Oscars this year: I didn’t know they were this coming weekend until I looked at a calendar this past Friday and realized that there was only one weekend left in February. “Oh,” I said, thoughtfully. “I probably should write something about that.” So here we are, but six days away from the movies’ biggest night, and now I will bestow upon you my infinite knowledge about where the awards are going to go this Sunday night. Will The Artist take home the big prizes as we all expect, or will some other film come up from behind and take home Oscar glory? Either way, it probably won’t be a movie that I have all that much affection for! So now I humbly present to you the second annual Only Oscar Preview That Matters, for I am surely the only blogger predicting such things. No? Well, moving on…
This year I only predicted categories I can pretend to know anything about. You can read the full list of nominees here.
Best Picture
That The Artist would win Best Picture this year has pretty much been a foregone conclusion since the Weinsteins picked it up last year at the Cannes Film Festival. It’s been coasting through awards season ever since. I’ve spilled much virtual ink on my thoughts—I think the movie is quite a bit of fun, but hardly anything to write home about—and now I’m just waiting for this all to be over already so we can move on. If you’re looking for a spoiler, the best bet is probably The Help, which is another harmless enough movie that does its job reasonably well but never comes close to the greatness that I think is required of a Best Picture winner. There’s also Hugo, which has more nominations than any other movie but probably isn’t going to win very much (if any) of them. However, if The Tree of Life deservedly comes out of nowhere and wins Best Picture, I may regain faith in the system once more. It won’t, but a boy can dream. Anyway, congrats to The Artist on becoming the answer to a trivia question. I doubt it will be remembered as anything more five years down the line.
Will win: The Artist
Could win: The Help
Should win: The Tree of Life
Best Director
If you want to know why I’m generally grumpy about the Oscars this year, look no further than the Best Director category. The winner is likely to be Michel Hazanavicius, who will be the victor simply because he made a nice little movie about a time the Academy is apparently nostalgic for. Here are the directors he is about to beat: Alexander Payne, Martin Scorsese, Woody Allen and Terrence Malick. I’m not saying they should be handing out the award based on who has the best resume, but the idea that Hazanavicius did a better directing job than any of those legends is bonkers. However, I think Malick’s directorial work may have the best chance of taking Hazanavicius down, just because there might be a significant percentage of the Academy that will want to recognize what he did with The Tree of Life. Even though he won’t win Best Picture, I think giving him this award would be a great tribute. The problem? There’s little evidence to suggest that this will happen.
Will win: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Could win: Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Should win: Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life
Best Actor
This might actually be a reasonably close battle between the admittedly charming lead of The Artist and Clooney’s work in The Descendants, which I still can’t buy as more than a perfectly “meh” movie with a lot of great performances. It’s hard for me to hate on either of these performances, but my choice (in a walk) would be Gary Oldman’s understated-but-powerful performance as George Smiley in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. The entire movie revolved around him, and he is silent for long stretches of time, but in every scene Oldman completely controls the room. I’ll pick Dujardin to win because of just how good he is at that classical silent movie acting, but I would not be surprised of Clooney swoops in from above to steal the statuette.
Will win: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Could win: George Clooney, The Descendants
Should win: Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Note: A Better Life, for which Demián Bechir is nominated, remains unseen.
Best Actress
I maintain that my favorite performance of the year period was Elizabeth Olsen in Martha Marcy May Marlene, so I’m a little angry that she wasn’t able to sneak in here and at least get a nomination of acknowledgement. (“Hey, you were good in a small movie! Let’s throw you a bone and give you a seat near the front!”) As is, we have Viola Davis as the clear favorite for her moving work in The Help, and I will take nothing away from her truly terrific work. Despite the fact I haven’t seen The Iron Lady, I have picked Meryl Streep as the possible spoiler because her name is Meryl Streep. My choice would probably be Rooney Mara’s captivating work in Fincher’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, as it really felt like the announcement of a great actress entering the scene. However, Davis would likely be my second choice, and I will be perfectly happy for her when she wins.
Will win: Viola Davis, The Help
Could win: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Should win: Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Note: Both Albert Nobbs and The Iron Lady remain unseen.
Best Supporting Actor
Let’s get this out of the way first: that Albert Brooks is not nominated for his performance in Drive is an abomination. We all know this, but even if he were nominated the winner would have likely been Christopher Plummer anyway. And why not? This is a guy that’s been around for ages, and his performance in that movie is what really sells it as more than pure quirk for quirk’s sake. If I were to pick the winner, he would be my choice without question. (Nolte comes in second.) It’s an older man’s game in this category this year, and if there’s going to be a spoiler I have the sinking feeling it will be Max von Sydow for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Even in such a problematic movie, you can’t help but like the guy. Still: go, Plummer, go!
Will win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Could win: Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Should win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Supporting Actress
It’s no secret that the two best parts of The Help were Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer, so it makes perfect sense that Spencer would take home the Oscar for her work. She’s the frontrunner, but after her it gets real tricky trying to predict a spoiler. Perhaps her The Help cast mate Jessica Chastain comes in and takes it away, or maybe The Artist will continue its reign of non-terror and Bérénice Bejo will win the award. However, I think the most likely dark horse for Best Supporting Actress is Melissa McCarthy for her truly hilarious work in Bridesmaids. She gave the straight-up funniest performance of the year, and I think that’s something that we should commend more often. Not only is she my potential spoiler, but she would also be my personal choice to win.
Will win: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Could win: Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Should win: Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Best Original Screenplay
All signs are pointing to the Academy giving the Best Original Screenplay Oscar to Woody Allen for his work on Midnight in Paris, but from what I can understand there is some serious buzz around Asghar Farhadi’s screenplay for the universally-acclaimed drama A Separation. From what I understand, there’s a possibility that Farhadi could rain on Allen’s parade and take this award home along with his presumed Best Foreign Language Film win. However, it’s more likely that the Oscar is just going to go to Allen. I’m no Midnight in Paris super-fan, so my pick would be to give it to Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumulo for Bridesmaids. This will likely change once I see A Separation, but right now it’s the only screenplay that’s sticking out to me from this bunch.
Will win: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Could win: Asghar Farhadi, A Separation
Should win: Kristen Wiig & Annie Mumulo, Bridesmaids
Note: A Separation remains unseen.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The one reason I’m excited for The Descendants to win Best Adapted Screenplay is because then I will get to see Jim Rash (aka Dean Pelton from Community) accept an Academy Award. If he has someone in a Dalmation costume with him, I will die on the spot. However, I should be honest and say that the screenplay for The Descendants is one of my least-favorite aspects of the film. There were several times for me when certain character developments felt forced rather than earned. My pick would be Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin and Stan Chervin’s near-Herculean work on Moneyball, which took an impossibly boring subject—even for baseball fans—and made it captivating. Not only could they upset the law firm of Payne, Faxon and Rash, they are by far the best choice of the bunch.
Will win: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, The Descendants
Could win: Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin & Stan Chervin, Moneyball
Should win: Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin & Stan Chervin, Moneyball
Best Animated Film
I may be the only person on the Internet whose favorite movie in this category was Puss in Boots, but here I am. (The two foreign entries have not been available for me to see.) While Puss would be my choice, I admit that it is a pretty darn conventional one, so I’ll be happy to see a thoroughly weird movie like Rango take home the trophy that usually goes over to the team at Pixar. It’s not always successful, but it is certainly bold and surprisingly dangerous. If the Academy does decide to go a safer route, then it will probably be Kung Fu Panda 2.
Will win: Rango
Could win: Kung Fu Panda 2
Should win: Puss in Boots
Note: Chico & Rita and A Cat in Paris remain unseen.
Best Original Song
This one’s pretty easy to pick, since there are only two nominees. It will probably be “Man or Muppet” in a walk, and if that song doesn’t win I’m going to punch all the Academy voters in the throat. (I’m standing by that, so if the Rio song wins I’m going to start asking for airfare to Los Angeles.) I would argue that “Man or Muppet” isn’t even the best song in The Muppets, but a win for this song would more or less be a win for that soundtrack anyway. Side note: that the Academy isn’t letting the Muppets sing a song is ludicrous. Yes, they’re presenting an award or something, but I could do that. We don’t need to save quite so much time in order to fit in that pre-taped segment of Billy Crystal trapped in an Artist-esque silent movie.
Will win: “Man or Muppet,” The Muppets (Bret McKenzie)
Could win: “Real in Rio,” Rio (Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown & Siedah Garrett)
Should win: “Man or Muppet”
Best Original Score
I suspect Bource is going to win for his score, which will be the only Artist win I will be genuinely angry at. Yes, he did some fine work mimicking the music of old silent movies, but are we really rewarding this film for its use of other films’ music like Vertigo? That saddens me, and it will only show the Academy’s increasing weakness for nostalgia. None of the other scores really stick out to me as all that great, but if there’s going to be a spoiler it will probably be the old reliable Howard Shore and his work in Hugo. My personal pick would be Alberto Iglesias’ work in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, which is the only other score with any musical moments I can recall liking.
Will win: Ludovic Bource, The Artist
Could win: Howard Shore, Hugo
Should win: Alberto Iglesias, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Best Cinematography
If The Tree of Life is going to win anything, it will probably be this. Even if you’re not on board with the rest of the film, you have to at least admit that it looks stunning. It should win and it will, but if the Academy goes a more three-dimensional (tee-hee) route they will likely give it to Hugo.
Will win: Emmanuel Lubezki, The Tree of Life
Could win: Robert Richardson, Hugo
Should win: Emmanuel Lubezki, The Tree of Life
Best Editing
This one reeks like a “Let’s give it to The Artist! Just because!” award, so that is the way I’m going with my prediction, with Scorsese veteran Thelma Schoonmaker hanging around in second. However, I quite liked the editing of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and I’m not just blowing smoke. I distinctly remember it being one of my favorite aspects of that film beside Mara’s performance, so that will be my personal pick.
Will win: Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Could win: Thelma Schoonmaker, Hugo
Should win: Kirk Baxter and Angus Well, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Parting thoughts:
While I likely won’t be crazy about where the awards go on Sunday night, I’m at least hoping for a fun show. That’s a tall order, but the return of Billy Crystal as host (after the Franco/Hathaway trainwreck last year) at least promises some level of hosting aptitude. Will the jokes be predictable and not particularly sharp? Yeah, probably. But he’s a darn charming fellow, and if he can at least make a show out of it I won’t be pulling my hair out Sunday night. I know, I know. I shouldn’t set my expectations too high. Anyway, I’ll see you next Monday when I write the post-mortem. Fare thee well, fair readers.
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